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Crypto Markets Brace for Impact: Key Economic Events and the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Set the Stage

As summer unfolds, the cryptocurrency market mirrors a gripping drama, with a slight dip over the weekend giving way to a modest rally to kick off the week, casting an air of mystery over the second half of 2025. Simultaneously, the U.S. political stage is ablaze with action: President Trump’s $3.4 trillion fiscal package, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), narrowly passed the House late last week. Robust economic data signaling a strengthening U.S. job market points to a wave of consumer spending optimism.

Yet, the market is bracing for a potential storm. Energy outlooks, U.S. Treasury auctions, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and the looming tariff deadline are poised to unleash volatility in the coming days.

This Week’s Economic Events: A Confluence of Forces

The week’s economic calendar is packed with pivotal events that could significantly swayboth cryptocurrency and global financial markets.

Monday: Consumer Credit Change
The Consumer Credit Change report, which tracks monthly shifts in total consumer credit (excluding mortgage debt), offers a window into borrowing and spending trends. A stronger-than-expected reading could signal rising consumer confidence and economic activity, potentially boosting market sentiment.

Tuesday: Business Optimism Index and Energy Outlook
Tuesday brings two critical reports. The June Business Optimism Index, reflecting the health and outlook of small businesses, serves as a barometer of economic vitality. Following this, the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook will forecast energy prices, influencing inflation expectations and market sentiment, which could ripple into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The EIA projects continued growth in U.S. crude oil production for 2025, but rising global crude inventories may depress oil prices, potentially benefiting consumers and businesses.

Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes and Tariff Deadline
Wednesday’s spotlight falls on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, with markets scouring for clues on future rate cuts. Analysts widelyវcurrently see a July rate cut as unlikely, with October being a more probable timeline. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has noted that, absent tariff impacts, rate cuts might have already begun, but the Fed remains cautious.

The defining event, however, is the July 9 deadline for the U.S.’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. UBS Global Wealth Management warns that imposing high tariffs without trade deals could trigger a global trade war, severely disrupting financial markets. Conversely, a delay in tariff implementation could signal restraint, boosting risk appetite and supporting assets like cryptocurrencies.

Midweek: U.S. Treasury Auctions
The week also features significant U.S. Treasury auctions: $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. These outcomes will influence market liquidity and interest ratetrends, impacting stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto market shows resilience. As of now, the total crypto market cap has edged up to $3.44 trillion, still within its two-month trading range.

Bitcoin has ticked upward, twice touching $109,500 in recent hours and eyeing $110,000—its highest since July 3. Investopedia notes that Bitcoin treasury companies are becoming a dominant force in 2025, a trend expected to persist. Upcoming spot crypto ETFs and crypto-related IPOs are set to bolster Bitcoin further. Analysts suggest that positive tariff signals from the Trump administration could push Bitcoin past its all-time high, just 2.2% away at $111,980. The growing acceptance of crypto in Washington, including Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Senate’s GENIUS Act, further supports this momentum.

Ethereum, meanwhile, climbed to $2,600 in Sunday’s late trading but faces strong resistance. Despite positive developments like anticipated Ethereum ETF inflows and favorable staking regulations, breaking key resistance at $2,560 requires more momentum. Brave New Coin’s analysis pegs Ethereum’s support at $2,478, with a breakout above $2,560 potentially targeting $2,639 or even $2,723. Long-term, Ethereum’s fundamentals and ETF momentum could drive prices to $5,791 or $8,500 by year-end.